In case you missed it

You said you must have “missed” the other indicators of an improving economy. Well, here they are. Care to dispute the WSJ and Forbes?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125261100485400509.html?mod=rss_Today’s_Most_Popular

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/08/20/business-specialized-consumer-services-us-leading-indicators-ahead-of-the-bell_6797842.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leading-indicators-rise-06-in-july-2009-08-20

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3 Responses to “In case you missed it”

  1. urstupidnourstupid Says:

    Before I dispute this, I don’t doubt that the stimulus and quantitative easing won’t boost our economy. The question is at what price.

    I looked at this report when it came out and I read about the indicators they use and the weight each indicator is given. These indicators don’t necessarily mean that the economy is growing. But there are some good things in there.

    Here are a few of the items they use in “leading indicators”.

    Stock Market: The stock market doesn’t necessarily mean that the economy is healthy. It’s a good sign that it’s up, but it was up much higher in Oct 2007.

    Weekly Claims for Unemployment: It’s good that they are decreasing, but they are going down from a really high number.

    Interest Rate Spread: It’s good that these are flattening out but doesn’t necessarily mean that our economy is growing.

    My point is that these are all statistics that are all improving from really bad #s last year and earlier this year. When I say flatlining, I mean the economy is not going through any major growth spurts (yet). Looking at GDP (flat), disposable personal income (flat), personal consumption (up a bit with cash for clunkers and house tax credits), future hiring forecasts (down).

    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

    http://www.manpower.com/investors/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=407343

    We had a very, very bad economic downturn. When you use short term data that shows improvement from really horrific data, it doesn’t mean that the economy is growing. It just means that it isn’t as bad.

    Once again, I’m not saying it won’t get better. I’m not saying we aren’t improving. I’m just saying that right now we are not growing. Perhaps I could have used a better word than flatlining. And my original point was completely lost in this anyway.

  2. urstupidnourstupid Says:

    That’s a lot of writing just to say “I was wrong.” 🙂

  3. urstupidnourstupid Says:

    LOL!!!

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